Global potash markets have shown mixed price movements in recent weeks, with most regions experiencing stable to slightly declining prices. The Vancouver FOB spot price for muriate of potash (MOP) currently stands at $285-327/ton (-$2 at both ends), while Northwest Europe prices range $302-401/ton (stable low end, -$2 high end). The Baltic/Black Sea region, a key export hub for Russian and Belarusian potash, maintains stable prices at $263-305/ton.
Russian Export Performance
Russia’s potash exports demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first half of 2025, achieving a 5% year-on-year increase to reach 6.8 million metric tons. This growth was primarily driven by EuroChem’s VolgaKaliy mine, which saw exports surge 23% to 1.9 million tons. Uralkali, Russia’s other major producer, recorded a marginal 1% decline to 4.9 million tons.
The second quarter presented challenges as both major producers underwent scheduled maintenance. Q2 exports fell 8% year-on-year to 3.1 million tons (excluding domestic consumption). However, the impact was less severe than initially projected, with actual production losses totaling approximately 400,000 tons (300,000 from Uralkali and 100,000 from EuroChem) compared to the anticipated 700,000-ton reduction.
Belarusian Export Dynamics
Belaruskali achieved an impressive 18% year-on-year increase in rail exports during H1 2025, reaching 6.04 million tons despite undergoing significant equipment upgrades at its Soligorsk-4 mine. This performance is particularly notable given the operational challenges and geopolitical constraints facing Belarusian exports.
The export composition reveals strategic shifts in Belarusian trade patterns:
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China shipments plummeted 40% to 540,000 tons, with zero shipments recorded in June
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Increased focus on powder KCl production to meet global demand
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Effective utilization of existing stockpiles to maintain export volumes
Market Implications and Outlook
The strong export performance from Russia and Belarus comes amid:
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Continued strong demand from BRICS nations
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Ongoing logistical adaptations to Western sanctions
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Stable prices in key import markets like Southeast Asia ($360-380/ton CFR) and Brazil ($365-370/ton CFR)
Industry analysts anticipate:
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Further export recovery in H2 as maintenance programs conclude
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Potential price stabilization in global markets
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Continued strategic realignment of trade flows to alternative markets
The ability of these two major producers to maintain and grow export volumes despite significant operational and geopolitical challenges underscores their continued importance in global fertilizer markets. Their performance will remain a critical factor in determining global potash supply dynamics through the remainder of 2025.
