China’s potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a controlled price decline following government-led supply stabilization measures, though persistent tight inventories continue to provide underlying support. This report analyzes the latest market developments, price trends, and supply-demand dynamics based on official data from the China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association.
Current Price Movements (Week of July 22, 2025)
Potassium Chloride (MOP) Market
| Product Specification | Price Range (CNY/ton) | Weekly Change | Key Observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port 62% White Granular | 3,150-3,450 | ↓ 100-150 | Core clients access lower pricing tier |
| Port 60% Red Granular | 3,300-3,500 | ↓ 50-100 | Limited transactions observed |
| Border Trade 62% White | 3,150-3,250 | ↓ 50-80 | Severe supply constraints |
| Qinghai 60% Powder (Delivered) | 3,200-3,300 | ↓ 100 (official) | New benchmark price established |
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Market
| Product Type | Price Range (CNY/ton) | Trend | Market Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Processed 52% Water-Soluble | 3,900-4,000 | Stable | Cost pressures maintain floor |
| Resource-Based 50% Powder | 3,550-3,600 | Stable | Backlog of existing orders |
Supply-Demand Analysis
Inventory Situation
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Port stocks: ~1.9 million tons (below historical averages)
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Projected arrivals: Limited shipments expected until September
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Domestic production:
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Qinghai operations running at reduced capacity
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Luobupo (罗钾) undergoing seasonal maintenance
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Market Influencing Factors
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Policy Measures
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Mandatory price/volume reporting by key suppliers
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Strategic reserve releases targeting core industrial users
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Transportation prioritization for agricultural inputs
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Supply Constraints
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Border trade uncertainty (August orders pending)
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International market tightness persisting
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Rail logistics bottlenecks
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Demand Profile
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Seasonal slowdown in Q3
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Emerging autumn preparation demand
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Compound fertilizer producers maintaining cautious inventories
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Market Outlook
Short-Term Projections (Next 4-6 Weeks)
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Price trajectory: Gradual decline (50-100 CNY/ton monthly)
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Supply improvement: Unlikely before mid-September
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Key watchpoints:
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Government stock release volumes
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Border trade negotiations
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International price movements
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Medium-Term Considerations
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Q4 demand recovery: Expected to tighten market
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Inventory rebuilding: Potential year-end pressure
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Policy continuity: Likely maintained through 2025 harvest
