August 4, 2025 – Global urea markets have witnessed a broad-based price rally this week, with key production regions reporting sharp increases of $15-32 per ton (RMB 107-230/ton). The surge is driven by tightening supply, robust demand, and anticipation of India’s upcoming mega-tender.
Key Price Movements
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Brazil: CFR prices for large granules rose to $460-480/ton, reflecting strong agricultural demand.
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Middle East & North Africa: FOB prices climbed due to export restrictions and production delays.
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Black Sea & Baltic regions: Prices increased by $20-30/ton, supported by European restocking.
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Southeast Asia: Supply tightened after maintenance shutdowns in Malaysia and Brunei, pushing up local bids.
Supply Constraints Fuel the Rally
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Indonesia secured deals for large granules at over $480/ton FOB, likely destined for India’s next import cycle.
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Egypt and Iran faced production halts, further squeezing global availability.
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China’s export restrictions continued to limit outflows, keeping international markets undersupplied.
India’s 2 Million-Ton Tender in Focus
The Indian IPL tender, closing today, is expected to set a new benchmark above $495/ton CFR, surpassing last month’s levels. Traders speculate that strong bids from Brazil and Southeast Asia could push prices even higher.
Market Outlook: Further Upside Expected
With Brazil’s peak demand season approaching and European buyers replenishing stocks, analysts foresee continued price strength into September. However, risks remain:
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Chinese export policy shifts could alter trade flows.
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New production from Russia and the Middle East may ease shortages later in Q3.
Conclusion: The global urea market remains bullish, with supply deficits and strong demand driving prices upward. All eyes are now on India’s tender results, which could dictate near-term price trends.
