Since September 17, hashtags such as #蜜雪冰城柠檬缺货# (Mixue Ice City Runs Out of Lemons), #柠檬涨价雪王缺货# (Lemon Prices Rise, Mixue Faces Shortages), and #30家蜜雪冰城14家停售柠檬水# (14 out of 30 Mixue Stores Suspend Lemonade Sales) have trended online, drawing widespread consumer attention.
In fact, as early as June and July, topics like “lemons soaring like gold” and “skyrocketing lemonade costs” had already sparked discussions. This summer, lemon prices entered a “rapid rise” phase, with some varieties seeing price increases of 3 to 5 times year-on-year. Major producing regions such as Sichuan’s Anyue experienced even more pronounced fluctuations.
Data from the national agricultural wholesale market price system shows that lemon prices have nearly doubled over the past year, rising from RMB 3.415 per jin in September 2024 to RMB 7.5 per jin in September 2025.
This supply fluctuation in a common beverage ingredient has once again turned the spotlight onto the hot lemon market.
Why Have Lemon Prices Surged?
According to the Beijing Xinfadi Market Information Center, the average wholesale price of lemons remained around RMB 3.75 per jin in early 2025 until mid-April. On April 15, prices suddenly jumped to RMB 5.5 per jin, reaching RMB 8 per jin by April 28 and peaking at RMB 11 per jin on July 26—compared to just RMB 3.5 per jin during the same period last year.
In retail markets, yellow lemons sold for RMB 10 per jin in June, while premium A-grade lemons reached RMB 15 per jin.
Key factors behind the price surge:
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Domestic Production Decline
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China’s lemon production in 2023 was 2.7657 million tons, with consumption at 2.7287 million tons.
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The price increase mainly affects yellow lemons, particularly the Eureka variety, primarily grown in Sichuan’s Anyue and Chongqing’s Tongnan regions.
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Anyue, the largest lemon production base in China, typically produces 580,000 tons annually from 480,000 mu of orchards.
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However, extreme weather in 2024—including a 55-day period of high temperatures and drought in Anyue—severely reduced fruit setting rates, leading to an estimated two-thirds reduction in output.
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Rising Demand
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China’s lemon market is projected to reach RMB 58 billion in 2025, up 62.92% from 2020.
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Beverage chains like Mixue Ice City significantly drive demand; the chain alone sells 1.1 billion cups of fresh lemonade annually.
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Summer beverage season and growing health awareness have further boosted demand. JD.com data show a 370% year-on-year increase in lemon-related product searches during summer 2025.
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International Orders Shift to China
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Major global lemon producers (Turkey, Italy, South Africa, Argentina) also faced extreme weather, reducing their export capacity.
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Turkey suspended lemon exports in April 2025, leading international buyers to turn to China.
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Anyue’s export volume surged to 85,400 tons in 2024, a 393% year-on-year increase. From January to May 2025, China’s lemon and lime exports reached 36,000 tons, valued at RMB 340 million.
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How Long Will the High Prices Last?
Although some experts predicted prices would ease with the autumn harvest in Sichuan and Chongqing, adverse weather in March and June 2025—including late frosts and heatwaves—has led to expectations of continued lower yields.
Global lemon production is also estimated to fall by about 6% in 2025. As a result, high prices are likely to persist until June–July 2026.
While rising demand poses challenges to the supply chain, market adjustments and improved planting techniques are expected to eventually stabilize prices.
