The global fertilizer market is currently navigating an era of unprecedented transformation. Geopolitical conflicts, shifts in major power policies, and supply chain restructuring have introduced new variables that are significantly amplifying market volatility. This article analyzes the core factors shaping the international fertilizer market, examines changing dynamics and future trends, and explores strategic responses and opportunities for the Chinese market.
Geopolitics and Policy Adjustments Reshaping the International Landscape
In recent years, geopolitical conflicts across multiple regions have profoundly impacted fertilizer markets. Flashpoints including the Ukraine crisis, Israel-Palestine conflict, and Red Sea tensions have not only disrupted regional supply chains but triggered global market panic, driving dramatic price fluctuations.
Potash, which accounts for the largest share of global fertilizer trade, has been particularly vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions. In the Baltic region, restrictions on fertilizer shipments from Russia and Belarus have severed traditional trade flows. Meanwhile, the Red Sea crisis has doubled shipping costs and extended voyage distances, compounding market uncertainty. In this environment, companies are being forced to prioritize “transportation security” over economic efficiency.
Geopolitical conflicts have also directly triggered significant price volatility. Following the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, urea prices surged to historic highs within a short period. Such extreme price fluctuations not only increase operational risks for enterprises but also threaten global food security.
Policy adjustments by various nations are exerting structural impacts on international fertilizer markets. US tariff adjustments have been particularly noteworthy. Washington has implemented a series of differentiated fertilizer policies: granting tariff exemptions for Canadian potash imports while imposing, then later lifting, sanctions on Belarus’s potash industry. These measures reflect the strategic importance attached to fertilizers.
Trade Flow Restructuring and Supply-Demand Balance
Under the influence of geopolitical and policy factors, global fertilizer trade patterns are undergoing significant realignment. Traditional cost-optimization logic is being upended as companies place greater emphasis on transportation security and stability.
China’s potash imports from resource-rich nations like Russia and Belarus have surged dramatically. Despite logistics costs doubling, ensuring supply stability has become paramount. This restructuring of trade flows is not only reshaping global fertilizer market dynamics but also profoundly influencing corporate strategies.
On the demand side, data from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) indicates that global fertilizer consumption rebounded in 2023-2024, achieving compound growth of 4% – significantly exceeding the historical average of 1-2%. This surge primarily reflects heightened attention to food security amid global political and economic instability, with nations increasing agricultural investments. On the supply side, with new production capacity coming online, the global fertilizer market is expected to move toward supply-demand balance.
China’s Multi-Pronged Approach to Supply Security and Price Stability
Amid current international market volatility, Chinese fertilizer enterprises face unprecedented challenges. Against this backdrop, the Chinese market has demonstrated remarkable resilience.
East Asia, including China, accounts for approximately one-third of global fertilizer consumption. During 2020-2025, international fertilizer markets encountered numerous “black swan” events that suppressed demand to varying degrees. However, driven by food security strategy, China’s apparent consumption of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash has continued rising. This has not only supported consecutive record-high domestic grain production but also provided stable demand support for global fertilizer markets.
China has long maintained relatively high dependence on potash imports. To mitigate risks, the country has implemented measures to optimize its import structure. Among these, potash shipments from Lao mines have grown steadily, now accounting for 15% of domestic consumption – effectively reducing external dependence. Additionally, China has actively advanced major potash contract negotiations. The 2026 negotiations demonstrated improved efficiency, securing supply commitments earlier and further stabilizing domestic markets.
Guided by industry associations, Chinese fertilizer enterprises are actively fulfilling social responsibilities by prioritizing domestic supply. In 2025, these companies face the dual challenge of ensuring adequate domestic supply and price stability while achieving industrial value enhancement.
Risk Management and Prudent Operations for Enterprises
Looking ahead, global fertilizer markets will continue facing numerous uncertainties while also presenting new opportunities. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts and policy adjustments will remain influential. Fertilizer enterprises must closely monitor developments in hotspots like Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as policy changes in major nations like the United States, adjusting strategies accordingly. Furthermore, with countries worldwide strengthening food security guarantees, robust agricultural demand will provide stable support for fertilizer requirements.
In today’s complex and volatile market environment, enterprises should closely track market dynamics, maintain safety stocks while avoiding excessive hoarding or critically low inventories, and enhance risk awareness. Accepting prolonged uncertainty as reality and adopting prudent operational approaches will help reduce business risks. Over the long term, companies should explore innovative fertilizer production methods to reduce costs and improve efficiency, thereby strengthening market competitiveness.
The global fertilizer market in 2026 stands at a crossroads, balancing geopolitical tensions with structural demand shifts. Success will depend on adaptability, strategic foresight, and resilient supply chain management.
