Nearly 20% of the world’s commercial ammonia supply has been taken offline, triggering price increases across multiple regions as suppliers urgently seek alternative sources, according to a report by Profercy. The impact continues to ripple through international agricultural and industrial markets.
Profercy data shows that the Middle East region averaged 315,000 metric tons of liquid ammonia shipped through the Strait of Hormuz for export each month in 2025. Since the outbreak of conflict, supply from core export hubs including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran has been largely interrupted due to damage to upstream production facilities and the inability of vessels to safely navigate key shipping lanes. Oman remains the only country in the region still maintaining exports.
Asian buyers turn to Southeast and Northeast Asia
With Middle Eastern supply nearly cut off, buyers and traders have turned to Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, where supply has been relatively abundant recently. Profercy data indicates that China’s liquid ammonia exports surged year-on-year in January–February, rising to approximately 125,000 metric tons from nearly 75,000 metric tons in the same period of 2025. Over the same period, Indonesian ammonia shipments reached nearly 300,000 metric tons, a 10% increase year-on-year.
Major Indonesian and Malaysian producers and buyers have pushed April spot offer prices to $550 per metric ton FOB, representing a 15–20% increase from previous transaction prices. This pricing suggests that the next spot cargo sold to India will likely exceed $600 per metric ton CFR, especially as the conflict in Iran has driven up global fuel and insurance costs, pushing ocean freight rates broadly higher.
Western market supply relatively stronger
Supply conditions in Western markets are notably better than in the East. Woodside Energy’s new 1.1-million-ton-per-year liquid ammonia facility in Texas, USA, has shipped its first export cargo of approximately 25,000 metric tons. Combined with the imminent restart of the Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in the same state, new production capacity is expected to help ease supply pressures arising from market volatility in the East.
Turkish buyers active in spot market
Turkish buyers are currently active in the spot market. Before the conflict, Turkey was a major buyer of Iranian ammonia, but many vessels involved in related transport operations are now subject to US sanctions. Nevertheless, Turkey continues to purchase large volumes of Russian ammonia from Baltic ports.
Outlook: regional divergence ahead
An assistant editor for Profercy’s ammonia market coverage expects that new international liquid ammonia orders for April–May will be settled by the end of this month. As long as the Middle East conflict persists, global ammonia price trends will continue to show regional divergence. However, the ammonia market has demonstrated strong resilience. During the early stages of the Ukraine crisis, the world also lost approximately one-fifth of commercial ammonia supply overnight, and the industry has accumulated experience in managing supply shocks.
