In July 2025, China’s ammonium sulfate exports experienced a substantial surge, reaching 2.2049 million tons. This represents an 18.78% increase compared to the previous month and a significant 56.75% year-on-year growth. The export value reached US$353.6909 million, with an average price of US$160 per ton. While the figures reflect strong export momentum, market sentiment has since turned cautious amid signs of weakening demand and declining prices.
Key Export Destinations
Brazil solidified its position as the largest importer of Chinese ammonium sulfate, receiving 1.2083 million tons in July. Myanmar and Indonesia followed, importing 148,300 tons and 86,400 tons, respectively. Notable volumes were also shipped to Romania (83,800 tons), Vietnam (83,000 tons), and Thailand (69,300 tons), indicating diversified demand across regions.
Market Dynamics and Challenges
Despite the July surge, the ammonium sulfate market has shown signs of weakness since August. Prices have declined after a brief increase, driven by multiple factors:
- Domestic Demand Sluggishness: Reduced operating rates in China’s compound fertilizer industry have curbed demand for ammonium sulphate, a key raw material.
- International Headwinds: The slowdown in new order placements abroad, coupled with softer export prices, has led to a decline in global buyer sentiment.
- There is a mixture of demand signals. While demand from the rare earth sector has provided localized support, broader downstream buyers have remained cautious. Coking plants in Hebei and Shandong provinces have experienced limited production due to operational constraints, further constraining domestic consumption.
Buyer Behavior and Sentiment
Downstream purchasers are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, reluctant to commit at current price levels. Market participants are anticipating additional adjustments, and are therefore delaying purchases until clearer signs of stability emerge.
Outlook and Key Considerations
Industry experts predict a weak market trend in the short term, with limited room for price recovery. However, potential catalysts could emerge:
- A recovery in international demand, particularly in key markets like Brazil, has the potential to stabilize exports.
- A policy-driven increase in domestic agricultural demand, potentially spurred by government incentives or seasonal factors, could revive consumption.
