According to recent survey data from DTN, based in Omaha, the outlook for nitrogen fertilizer supply in 2026 appears optimistic as global markets recover, with prices expected to potentially return to historically normal ranges.
IFA Report: Recovery in Fertilizer Usage
The International Fertilizer Association’s (IFA) *Mid-Term Outlook 2025–2029 Summary* indicates a rebound in global fertilizer consumption, reaching a new record in 2024.
In 2023, fertilizer usage (N, P, K) grew by 4.5%, reaching 198 million tons, followed by a 4.4% increase to 206 million tons in 2024. This represents a 17-million-ton rise from the 2022 low of 189 million tons and exceeds the previous record of 202 million tons set in 2020 by 4 million tons.
IFA projects that global fertilizer usage will continue to increase between 2025 and 2029, albeit at a slower annual growth rate of 1%–2%, down from the rapid growth of the past two years. By 2029, total global fertilizer consumption is forecasted to reach 224 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons from 2024.
The significant decline in fertilizer usage observed in 2021 and 2022 was largely attributed to historically high prices. IFA notes that the recent recovery in fertilizer consumption is primarily due to prices falling substantially from the mid-2022 peaks.
Steady Improvement in Nitrogen Supply
Samuel Taylor, an agricultural inputs research analyst at Rabobank, noted that one reason nitrogen fertilizer prices have remained elevated in 2025 is the delay in new nitrogen supply, particularly evident in the United States. For instance, Gulf Coast Ammonia in Texas City, Texas—a new plant that began operations in early 2025 and was expected to add 1.3 million tons of ammonia annually—experienced multiple production disruptions, resulting in minimal output for much of the year. “Currently, any additional nitrogen supply would benefit the North American market,” Taylor stated.
Although the plant resumed operations in the fall, recent rumors suggest further production issues. Mark Milam, Senior Fertilizer Editor at ICIS, indicated that the facility may have encountered additional problems in recent weeks, possibly leading to another shutdown. The plant aimed to achieve 80% capacity and produce 100,000 tons by year-end but appears to have faced setbacks.
IFA remains optimistic about nitrogen supply in 2026. In 2024, global ammonia production reached 190.5 million tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, while urea production also grew significantly, rising 3% to 201 million tons.
According to IFA, nitrogen capacity investments are concentrated in countries with low-cost natural gas resources and decarbonization hubs, led by the United States, Nigeria, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Russia. “Ammonia production capacity is expected to grow slightly faster than demand over the next five years,” the IFA report states. Global ammonia capacity is projected to increase by 9% from 166.6 million tons in 2024 to 184.9 million tons by 2029.
Woodside Energy’s ammonia plant in Beaumont, Texas, is scheduled to begin operations in the first or second quarter of 2026. Milam noted that this new facility will contribute additional supply to the global market, with an annual production capacity of 1.1 million tons of ammonia.
Natural Gas Supply Concerns Persist
Natural gas serves as the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production. Various global natural gas supply constraints have also impacted nitrogen supply in 2025, affecting regions such as Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Egypt, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Iran.
While natural gas supply in Trinidad and Tobago has recently improved, Samuel Taylor cautioned that geopolitical tensions in the region could affect natural gas flows in 2026. Ongoing disputes between the United States and Venezuela may impact gas imports to Trinidad and Tobago, potentially disrupting nitrogen production in the Caribbean nation. An escalation of conflicts could further strain supply for major nitrogen producers.
Increased Supply to Drive Price Declines
Fertilizer analysts emphasize that nitrogen price trends in 2026 will depend on several factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions, spring weather conditions, and U.S. corn acreage. Any of these variables could alter the market outlook.
Justin Rackleff, Principal Analyst for North American Fertilizer at CRU, highlighted that fall fertilizer application patterns could influence 2026 price trends. Reports of shortened application windows in parts of the Corn Belt due to early winter weather may impact spring nitrogen demand. “The amount of nitrogen applied in spring will affect the market,” Rackleff noted, adding that higher spring application rates could drive nitrogen prices upward.
He also pointed out that urea prices may face upward risks in 2026, driven by increasing import demand from countries like India, where urea imports are projected to rise from 9.1 million tons to 9.6 million tons. Additionally, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices may see upward pressure if limited fall applications lead to higher spring usage in the United States.
For other nitrogen forms, prices are more likely to decline in 2026. Rackleff expressed confidence that increased global supply will help lower prices. Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that nitrogen prices could return to more normal ranges in 2026, assuming no significant disruptions in the global fertilizer market. He emphasized that expanded global nitrogen supply will play a key role in moderating prices.
Linville also noted that the recent $12 billion agricultural aid package announced by former President Donald Trump could influence the 2026 fertilizer market. While not a solution to all farmer profitability challenges, these additional funds may encourage higher fertilizer application rates among farmers.
