The star herbicide product in China’s pesticide market, clethodim, has reached a pivotal turning point as 2025 comes to a close.
With the smooth resumption of operations at major production facilities, the persistently high prices have responded with a sharp correction. On December 28, market quotations fell substantially to approximately 85,000 yuan per ton. While this appears to conclude the nearly year-long “supply crisis,” the price decline is only a surface phenomenon. Beneath it lies a profound shift in market logic—from “short-term speculation” toward “long-term value.”
It is worth noting that clethodim prices have been rising consistently this year. According to data from BaiChuan YingFu, the quotation for clethodim climbed from around 77,000 yuan per ton at the start of the year to a peak of approximately 140,000 yuan per ton—nearly doubling. The drop from this high of 140,000 yuan/ton to the current 85,000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 55,000 yuan/ton, marks the market’s entry into a new phase of adjustment.
1. Capacity Recovery and Demand Adjustment Drive Rational Price Return
The core driver of this price correction is the certainty of recovery on the supply side.
The capacity gap triggered at the beginning of the year—due to the shutdown of Ningxia Yifan’s clethodim production line and technical upgrades at an East China enterprise—was the direct cause of the price surge to the peak of 140,000 yuan/ton. The year-end “cliff drop” in price is precisely due to the smooth return of these core capacities, which has completely reversed market supply expectations.
The magnitude of the price drop clearly reflects the intensity of the market adjustment: falling from the peak of 140,000 yuan/ton on June 15, 2025, to 85,000 yuan/ton on December 28—a decline of over 39% in just six months. However, the price retreat is not merely a result of increased supply; it is the outcome of a dual-sided dynamic between supply and demand.
During the high-price period, downstream demand was significantly suppressed: formulation companies exercised production caution due to cost-price inversion, channel distributors’ motivation to stockpile weakened, and end-users even explored alternative solutions. Once the signal for supply recovery became clear, the market did not witness retaliatory procurement but instead adopted an extremely rational stance towards acceptance.
Therefore, the current price level of 85,000 yuan/ton represents a “rebalancing” of supply and demand at a new equilibrium, signaling a cooling of market sentiment.
2. Aftermath of Price Volatility Reshapes Market Ecology
Industry insiders indicate that the extreme price volatility in clethodim over the past year has had a profound impact on the industry’s ecology. These “aftereffects” will become long-term defining features of the future market.
The primary issue is the inventory crisis under “price inversion.” High-priced inventory accumulated within the distribution channels has become a heavy burden for traders. In a declining market, panic selling accelerated the price fall, creating a negative feedback loop. During the drop from 140,000 yuan/ton to 85,000 yuan/ton, many enterprises holding high-cost inventory suffered significant losses.
Secondly, the profitability of downstream formulation companies urgently needs repair. Although cost pressures have eased, the prolonged period of losses prior has severely depleted corporate cash flows, necessitating a period of recuperation for the entire sector.
The most far-reaching impact is that it has driven “supply chain optimization and adjustment.” Downstream enterprises have gained a deep understanding of the risks associated with over-reliance on a single raw material, accelerating research into alternative product applications and formulation optimization. This will make future demand more sensitive to price fluctuations.
3. Mid-to-Long Term: Cost Leadership and Value Competition Become the New Norm
Is 85,000 yuan/ton the endpoint for clethodim prices? What will the mid-to-long term trend look like?
Industry insiders state that 85,000 yuan/ton is by no means the endpoint for clethodim prices; rather, it is the starting point of a new phase. Looking ahead to 2026, the market logic has fundamentally shifted.
In the short term, prices remain under pressure, but the bottom is solid. Amidst the market psychology of “buying rising, not falling” prices, they may continue to seek a lower bottom. However, the current “cost floor” is not what it used to be. Stringent environmental and safety policies constitute rigid production costs, meaning the price floor has been significantly elevated, and a return to the cheap era of the past is unlikely. The 75,000-80,000 yuan/ton range may become a strong cost support level.
In the mid-to-long term, industry competition will return to its essence. Space for reckless growth and speculative games is being compressed. Competition will revolve around “cost control” and “value creation.” For technical material producers, competition will center on the cost advantages and stable production capabilities brought by technological upgrades. For downstream enterprises, the focus must shift from low-level price wars toward providing cost-effective solutions and professional technical services.
In summary, the drop in clethodim prices from 140,000 yuan/ton to 85,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55,000 yuan/ton, is not only a market correction for supply-demand imbalance but also a profound lesson for the industry. A “new normal” dominated by cost-based pricing and value competition is taking shape. Companies must adhere to a long-term perspective, enhancing resilience through internal improvements to navigate cycles and achieve sustainable development. This price adjustment has not only altered the market landscape but is also set to reshape the entire industry’s competitive logic and developmental model.
