In 2025, China’s port inventories for potassium chloride (MOP) exhibited a significant characteristic of persistently low levels, a trend that essentially continued throughout the year. Notably, in September, port stockpiles dropped to less than 1.7 million metric tons (mt), not only representing a sharp decline from the beginning of the year but also setting a new low compared to the same period in recent years.
Data comparison charts of China’s MOP port inventories from 2023 to 2025 reveal that domestic port stocks remained high throughout 2024, even exceeding 4 million mt in some months. Entering 2025, port inventories started at approximately 3 million mt but showed a clear and consistent downward trend as the year progressed. Despite the signing of a new annual import supply contract in June—aimed at alleviating market supply pressure by increasing import volumes—the actual outcome deviated significantly from expectations. In July, actual MOP imports amounted to only 532,800 mt, a figure far below market forecasts and setting a new monthly low. This exacerbated tight market supply and fueled price increases. For instance, between July 7 and 16, 2025, prices for 62% white MOP rapidly climbed to a high range of RMB 3,550-3,560 per mt, while domestic MOP prices followed suit, rising to RMB 3,200-3,400 per mt. The severe imbalance between supply and demand made substantial price corrections unlikely in the short term, imposing significant cost pressure on downstream users.
Multiple factors contributed to the sustained low inventory levels. Firstly, tense international shipping conditions and delays in the fulfillment of the major supply contract prolonged transportation cycles for imported MOP, leading to an uneven arrival schedule. During critical periods, incoming volumes fell far short of market demand, preventing effective accumulation of port inventories and creating a supply gap. Secondly, a clear mismatch existed between market demand timing and cargo arrival schedules. Agricultural fertilizer demand follows strict seasonal cycles with specific requirements for MOP volume and timing. However, the import rhythm failed to align effectively with these agricultural cycles. Consequently, port inventories did not recover as anticipated, market supply gaps remained unfilled, and stock levels continued to operate at low levels.
In response, the government actively played a regulatory role by implementing policies to “ensure supply and stabilize prices,” releasing national reserve supplies and guiding companies to arrange production and supply rationally to ensure market stability. As market dynamics adjusted, positive changes began to appear in port inventories by October, with stock levels gradually increasing as new supplies arrived, injecting fresh vitality into the market. Furthermore, the determination of the 2026 international MOP supply contract price has provided a degree of supply-side support for the later domestic market.
Inventory Change Forecast and Analysis
By the end of 2025, port MOP inventories stabilized around 2.4 million mt. Although this remains below the level at the start of the year, it indicates a stabilizing and recovering trend, establishing a baseline for early 2026 inventories.
For 2026, the new annual supply contract has been signed ahead of schedule, and new supplies are likely to arrive gradually before the Spring Festival. In the first half of the year, driven by fertilizer preparation demand for spring ploughing, port inventories may initially decline before stabilizing. In the second half, as fulfillment of the MOP supply contract nears completion, inventories may gradually recover. However, limited by both import volumes and demand growth, the increase in inventory is likely to be constrained.
