Blueberries have recently become a trending topic in China as prices drop sharply, drawing widespread attention across the industry. According to a report from Yunnan Broadcasting System’s “Urban Channel,” fruit wholesale markets in Kunming are now filled with stacked crates of blueberries, with merchants busy packing and sorting them for shipment to various destinations.
Unlike the beginning of the year, when prices often exceeded 100 yuan per kilogram, blueberry prices have fallen significantly. Depending on quality and size, prices now range from approximately 18 to 50 yuan per kilogram, with some ordinary-grade fruit selling for less than 10 yuan per jin (500 grams).
Prices cut in half
A fruit merchant in Kunming said blueberry prices are now determined by the quality of each batch, with most seeing their prices cut in half compared to earlier levels. “Fragrant blueberry 18+ used to sell for 95 yuan per kilogram, but now it’s only 45 yuan,” the merchant said. Other varieties and sizes have also seen varying degrees of price reductions.
Peak harvest season doubles supply
The current period marks the peak harvest season for blueberries, with greenhouse-grown fruit and open-field fruit coming to market simultaneously. This double supply has significantly increased market availability, directly pulling down overall blueberry prices.
Additionally, the transition between blueberry varieties is further influencing market prices. The early-season fragrant blueberry variety, known for its crisp and sweet taste and higher price point, is now entering its final phase. Meanwhile, a more aromatic variety with greater sweetness and a more affordable price will gradually become the market mainstream.
Industry insiders expect the current blueberry supply season to last another one to two months. Among these, the fragrant blueberry will be available for approximately half a month to one month. Off-season blueberries will continue to arrive later, though their taste will be more tart and less sweet than in-season fruit.
China’s blueberry industry rises to global dominance
Behind the more affordable prices of domestic blueberries lies the rapid rise of China’s blueberry industry. Statistics show that in 2020, China’s blueberry production reached 347,200 metric tons, surpassing the United States to become the world’s largest producer. By 2024, the national blueberry cultivation area had exceeded 1.4 million mu (approximately 93,300 hectares), an increase of 44% from four years earlier, while production surged to 780,000 metric tons, an increase of 125%. By 2025, the blueberry planting area further expanded to 1.58 million mu, with total production soaring to 810,000 metric tons.
Leveraging its unique climatic advantages, Yunnan Province has become China’s largest blueberry-producing region, employing modern cultivation techniques such as substrate cultivation in greenhouses and smart integrated water and fertilizer management. Yunnan accounts for approximately 30% of the country’s total blueberry production. Together with staggered peak production periods in other major growing regions, including northern China, Guizhou, and Xinjiang, the country has formed a year-round supply system, further stabilizing market supply and lowering end-user prices.
Will blueberries follow the “Shine Muscat” path?
As more blueberries flood the market, some are beginning to worry whether blueberries will follow the same trajectory as Shine Muscat grapes—soaring prices, mass expansion, oversupply, price collapse, and vine removal.
Industry insiders point out that Shine Muscat’s downfall was due to its relatively low cultivation barriers, which led to a surge of farmers entering the market within just a few years. Massive planting expansion caused prices to plummet from their peak, ultimately plunging the industry into difficulties.
Blueberries, however, have much higher entry barriers than Shine Muscat and are asset-intensive. The dominant cultivation methods today—greenhouse potted cultivation and precision water and fertilizer management—require investment costs of RMB 14 million to 17 million for a 100-mu (approximately 6.7-hectare) base. Production costs exceed 30 yuan per kilogram, making it difficult for ordinary farmers to blindly follow the trend.
Toward a more affordable future
Industry insiders emphasize that even with significant price declines, large-scale blueberry bases can still maintain gross margins of around 30%. Combined with continuously expanding consumer demand, blueberries are more likely to follow the path of cherries—becoming affordable and accessible to the general public—rather than collapsing into oversupply crisis. In the medium to long term, the gross margin of the blueberry industry may settle at around 20%, gradually moving away from the industry’s “excessive profit” phase and toward a more stable era of affordability.
