The US soybean industry is confronting its most severe challenge in two decades as the ongoing US-China trade war leads China to halt purchases of new American crops. With China, once the largest buyer, out of the market, American farmers are being forced to store a significant portion of their harvest, squeezing profits and putting pressure on the broader rural economy, including agricultural machinery manufacturers.
Data shows that from January to July, US soybean exports to China plummeted by 39% to 5.9 million metric tons, with the export value halving to $2.5 billion. Crucially for the new 2025/26 marketing year (September-August), China has not yet booked a single cargo of US soybeans. This starkly contrasts with previous years, when Chinese buyers would have already secured millions of tons by this time. The persistent trade friction is pushing China firmly toward South American suppliers, eroding the US market share.
In the face of this buyer’s absence, US farmers and industry groups are scrambling to develop alternative markets. The United States and Vietnam signed a memorandum of understanding for the latter to purchase $1.4 billion in American agricultural products, including soybeans. Talks are also underway with buyers in Nigeria, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Malaysia. However, the scale of these new markets pales in comparison to China. For instance, Bangladesh’s purchase of 400,000 tons and Nigeria’s total imports of just 64,000 tons last year are mere fractions of China’s former appetite.
In Illinois, the top US soybean-producing state, local growers estimate a loss of $8 per acre. Hamstrung by weak exports and low prices, farmers are being compelled to sell part of their crop below the cost of production, storing the rest in the hope of a market recovery. While industry delegations are leading farmers on missions to the Middle East and Africa to seek new buyers, the consensus is that these markets cannot replace the volume once provided by China.
Although US Treasury Secretary Besant has indicated that a new financial support package for farmers will be announced next week, there is widespread concern that such aid will be insufficient to offset the long-term impact of losing Chinese orders. Farmers and industry insiders widely believe that only a resumption of purchases by China can truly alleviate the distress gripping the American soybean sector.
