China’s urea spot market continued its steady upward trend, with ex-factory prices in some regions rising slightly and a few areas experiencing minor declines, with adjustments ranging from RMB 10–20/ton. The current urea market faces prominent supply-demand contradictions.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
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Supply Side: Domestic urea daily production remains around 190,000 tons, with an operating rate of approximately 82%. Despite shutdowns at some production facilities, overall daily output remains high, ensuring ample market supply.
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Demand Side:
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Agricultural demand is weak, with low autumn usage. Winter wheat fertilization in central plains regions has been delayed due to weather conditions.
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Compound fertilizer enterprises are shifting focus to winter storage, accelerating inventory reduction and making urea purchases at low prices.
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Industrial demand from sectors like wood-based panel manufacturing is limited to rigid needs. Overall, industrial and agricultural demand remains sluggish.
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Market Outlook
Industrial and agricultural demand are unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term. High daily production and elevated inventory levels are expected to persist. Although the winter wheat planting season will bring a peak in fertilizer demand, export prospects remain dim. In the near term, urea prices are projected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range. Key factors to monitor include policy developments, supply-demand dynamics, futures market trends, and export news.
Regional Urea Price Overview (RMB/ton, as of October 16)
| Region | Small/Medium Granules Ex-Factory | Large Granules Ex-Factory | Market Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 1,520–1,580 | 1,650–1,720 (↑10) | Linyi: ~1,560; Heze: ~1,540 |
| Henan | 1,510–1,570 (↑10) | – | – |
| Hebei | 1,550–1,580 (Stable) | ~1,700 (Stable) | – |
| Anhui | 1,520–1,580 (↑20) | – | – |
| Jiangsu | 1,570–1,610 (↑10) | – | – |
| Hubei | 1,520–1,580 (↑20) | – | – |
| Hunan | – | – | 1,570–1,620 (Stable) |
| Jiangxi | 1,570–1,590 (Stable) | – | – |
| Shanxi | 1,470–1,520 (↑10) | 1,620–1,640 (Stable) | – |
| Shaanxi | 1,470–1,540 (Stable) | – | – |
| Gansu | 1,600–1,650 (Stable) | – | – |
| Ningxia | 1,490–1,500 (Stable) | – | – |
| Inner Mongolia | 1,400–1,590 (Stable) | – | – |
| Xinjiang | North: 1,300–1,470; South: 1,350–1,500 (Stable) | – | – |
| Guangxi | – | – | 1,690–1,710 (↑10) |
| Guangdong | – | – | 1,690–1,700 (Stable) |
| Fujian | – | – | ~1,720 (Stable) |
| Sichuan | 1,610–1,750 (Stable) | – | – |
| Chongqing | 1,620–1,640 (Stable) | – | – |
| Yunnan | 1,770–1,830 (Stable) | – | – |
| Guizhou | ~1,680 (Stable) | – | – |
| Heilongjiang | ~1,610 (Stable) | – | – |
| Jilin | ~1,600 (Stable) | – | – |
| Liaoning | 1,630–1,650 (Stable) | – | – |
