China exported zero DAP (diammonium phosphate) in July 2026, down 55,000 tons from June and a sharp drop of 984,300 tons year-on-year, according to customs data.
For the first seven months of 2026, China’s cumulative DAP exports totaled just 73,900 tons, a staggering 95.33% decline from the 1.5094 million tons recorded in the same period of 2025.
Policy Outlook Remains Tight
DAP exports have been under strict control since the removal of mandatory inspection in mid-October last year. Monthly exports have remained negligible since January, and have been effectively zero since March, with only minor transactional records in June under bonded warehouse supervision. July saw a return to zero.
To date, authorities have not signaled any easing of export restrictions. With sulfur prices staying high and feedstock supply tight, producers are prioritizing domestic agricultural demand for the upcoming winter planting season. Exports are expected to remain largely suspended for the remainder of the year, though policy directions remain subject to change.
International Prices Hold Firm
In contrast to China’s supply freeze, global DAP prices continued to show strength, underpinned by tightening supply and emerging procurement demand from regions including South Asia.
Bangladesh Tender Under Review
Bangladesh’s private sector recently concluded a DAP procurement tender, drawing bids exceeding actual requirements. The lowest offer came in at US$978.89/ton CFR, inclusive of warehouse delivery. Private importers are required to open letters of credit within seven days of the award notice. However, the government has yet to officially respond, and the bids may exceed its budget ceiling. If successful, the tender could provide suppliers with an alternative outlet to counter weak Indian demand. Should it fail, however, suppliers may struggle to find competitive re-export markets in the near term.
India Market Turns Cautious
Indian buyers have adopted a more cautious stance, with trader offers drifting lower. DAP prices in India fell to US$905–920/ton CFR. Despite this, importers are accelerating purchases ahead of the rabi (winter) season starting in October. NFL awarded its latest tender at lower credit-linked prices, while IPL secured two South Korean-origin DAP cargoes at even lower rates.
China’s nominal DAP prices were adjusted to US$875–915/ton FOB, with the lower end down US$5/ton, reflecting lower netbacks compared with recent Indian trades. Official export offers remain unavailable as suppliers stay on the sidelines.
Outlook
Internationally, with demand gradually releasing and supply-side tightness persisting, the price floor is expected to remain high in the short term. Domestically, policy uncertainty continues, with limited likelihood of relaxation. Producers will continue to prioritize domestic reserves for autumn and winter fertilizer needs. Market attention should remain on policy signals and feedstock cost developments.
